April 29 (SeeNews) - Romania's economic output will rise by an estimated 2.9% in 2022, finance ministry analysts said on Wednesday, lowering their previous forecast for 4.3% growth made in February.
The revision was taken in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while also reflecting rising energy prices and a slowdown in economic activity in Europe and globally, the National Prognosis Commission (CNP), an analyst unit within the finance ministry, said in a document published on its website.
The commission mentions that the Covid-19 pandemic shock has diminished considerably, as restrictions were lifted in March and most affected sectors such as HORECA or transportation are starting to recover.
Romania's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to total 1.327 trillion lei ($282 billion/268 billion euro) this year.
Final household consumption is expected to grow by just 2.7% this year, compared to a 6.1% annual growth in 2021, CNP said.
Agriculture is expected to edge down by an annual 0.4%, services will grow by 3.4% and industry will expand by 1.5% in 2022, while construction is forecast to add an annual 5.7%.
Exports of goods and services are expected to grow by 4.4% in 2022, as imports are seen increasing by 5.1%.
The analysts also said they expect, on average, inflation of 9.7% for end-2022 and 3.5% for end-2023. Romania's consumer prices rose by 10.15% year-on-year in March, compared to 8.53% in February according to national statistical office data.
For 2023, the analysts at CNP expect the economy to expand by 4.4%, compared to a previous forecasts of 5.1%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said earlier this month that Romania's GDP will grow by 2.2% this year, cutting its forecast for 4.8% growth made in October.
Also in April, the World Bank said Romania's economy is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2022 with risks strongly tilted to the downside, slashing its January forecast of a 4.3% GDP growth.
In March, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said Romania's GDP will increase by 2.8% in 2022, lowering its November forecast for a rise of 4.4%.
(1 euro = 4.9475 Romanian lei)