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Romanian govt analysts improve 2022 GDP growth f'cast to 3.5%

Romanian govt analysts improve 2022 GDP growth f'cast to 3.5% Bucharest aerial view Source:

BUCHAREST (Romania), August 12 (SeeNews) - Romania's economic output will rise by an estimated 3.5% in 2022, finance ministry analysts said, improving their April projection for 2.9% growth.

The economic growth forecast for the current year has been improved as a result of sectors such as transport, IT services, services for enterprises performing above expectations, the National Prognosis Commission (CNP), an analyst unit within the finance ministry, said in an update to its 2022-2026 medium term forecast published on Thursday.

The improvement was also due to growth in the construction sector during the second half of the year, stimulated by the implementation of the National Resilience and Recovery Plan, as well as by government measures for adjusting costs of construction contracts to inflation.

According to CNP, a risk is emerging from agriculture if dry weather will persist for a long period.

Romania's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to total 1.372 trillion lei ($289 billion/279 billion euro) this year, the CNP said. Final household consumption is expected to increase by 3.2% this year, compared to 6.1% annual growth in 2021.

Agriculture is expected to decrease by an annual 3.4%, services will grow by 4.8% and industry will expand by 0.6% in 2022, while construction is forecast to add an annual 5%.

Exports of goods and services are expected to grow by 6.4% in 2022, while imports are seen increasing by 5.4%.

The analysts also said they expect, on average, inflation of 12.9% at the end of 2022 and 6.2% next year. Romania's consumer prices rose by 14.96% year-on-year in July, compared to 15.05% in June, according to national statistical office data.

For 2023, analysts at CNP expect the Romanian economy to expand by 3.7%, compared to a previous forecast of 4.4% growth.

Romania’s economy grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, compared to a 0.1% annual contraction during the same period last year, the statistical board said earlier. The country's GDP grew by 5.9% in 2021, compared to a 3.9% contraction in 2020.

(1 euro = 4.9090 Romanian lei)