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Croatia's 2019 GDP growth seen quickening to 3.0% - think-tank

Author Iskra Pavlova
Croatia's 2019 GDP growth seen quickening to 3.0% - think-tank Coincident Economic Index, CEIZ, of the Economic Institute in Zagreb (EIZ). Photo: EIZ

ZAGREB (Croatia), February 12 (SeeNews) - The Institute of Economics Zagreb (EIZ) has estimated that Croatia's economic growth quickened to 3.0% last year from 2.6% in 2018, it said.

The full-year GDP estimate is based on gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate calculated at 4.1%, 2.4%, 2.9% and 2.5% year-on-year in the first, second, third and fourth quarter of 2019, respectively, EIZ said on Tuesday in the monthly review of its Coincident Economic Index, CEIZ.

The estimate is in line with the latest expectations of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Commission, which project Croatia's 2019 economic growth at 2.9% - 3.0%. Those institutions forecast growth of 2.5% - 2.7%  in 2020.

In December, the Croatian central bank said growth is expected to slow down to 2.8% in 2020 from 3.0% anticipated in 2019.

The country's statistics office is expected to release a first estimate on the 2019 GDP growth on February 28.

In its monthly review, EIZ also improved its forecast for the fourth-quarter annual GDP growth to 2.5%, based on data for October, November and December, from 2.3% predicted in January when data for October and November only were available.

EIZ noted that the CEIZ index in December recorded its highest value in the last quarter of 2019, supported by the annual increase in tourist arrivals (up 6.5%) and retail trade (up slightly less than 6.5%). Industrial production, however, which has been mostly shrinking in annual terms since the beginning of the summer, recorded a 0.2% decrease in December.

The CEIZ index aims to provide timely information on the current business cycle conditions. Its value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus serving as an indicator of the present state of the economy. 

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