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Croatian think-tank lowers Q4 GDP growth estimate to 2.3% y/y

Author Iskra Pavlova
Croatian think-tank lowers Q4 GDP growth estimate to 2.3% y/y Coincident Economic Index, CEIZ, of the Economic Institute in Zagreb (EIZ). Photo: EIZ

ZAGREB (Croatia), January 16 (SeeNews) - Croatia's Institute of Economics Zagreb (EIZ) said on Thursday it is lowering its forecast for the country's economic growth in the final quarter of 2019 to 2.3% year-on-year, based on data for October and November, from 2.7% projected earlier.

According to most recent data, in October and November the EIZ's Coincident Economic Index, CEIZ, decreased by a cumulative 0.51 points compared to the third quarter of 2019, EIZ said in its monthly CEIZ review.

The previous forecast was made in December when the CEIZ reading for October was up by 0.7 index points compared to October 2018, and down by 0.1 index point compared to September 2019.

Three of the four index components - industrial production, tourist arrivals, VAT revenue - declined in November compared to a month earlier, with retail trade being the only gainer, the statement added.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, the fourth-quarter GDP is seen down by 0.3% compared to the preceding quarter.

EIZ will be able to calculate the fourth-quarter GDP growth with greater certainty once the CEIZ index value for December becomes available.

The CEIZ index aims to provide timely information on the current business cycle conditions. Its value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus serving as an indicator of the present state of the economy. 

The revision is in line with the latest estimates of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Commission, which expect Croatia's economy to grow by 2.9% - 3.0% this year. They project growth of 2.5% - 2.7%  in 2020.

In December, the Croatian central bank said the country's economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.8% in 2020 from 3.0% anticipated in 2019.