August 21 (SeeNews) - Bulgaria's central bank has increased its forecast for the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2019 to 3.7%, up 0.1 percentage points compared to the prediction made in December 2018, it said.
The projection for 2020 GDP growth was lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%, the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) said in the second-quarter edition of its Economic Review report published on Tuesday.
"The upward revision of 2019 GDP growth projection reflects mainly a stronger than expected recovery in goods exports over the first quarter as a result of the exhausted short-term factors," the BNB explained.
Another major contributor was an upward government consumption revision which in turn reflected primarily the reported higher growth rate in government consumption in early 2019.
Bulgaria's economy expanded by 3.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2019, after growing by 3.5% in the previous quarter, the National Statistical Institute said in a flash estimate last week.
The central bank also said it confirmed its harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) projection at 2.6% at the end of 2019, while it cut its HICP growth forecast for end-2020 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.9%, primarily due to a change in assumptions about international oil and food prices in euro.
Details follow:
Percentage change, y/y |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
GDP at constant prices |
3.1 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
Private consumption |
6.4 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
Government consumption |
4.7 |
4.8 |
3.5 |
Gross fixed capital formation |
6.5 |
7.2 |
5.3 |
Exports |
-0.8 |
4.6 |
3.4 |
Imports |
3.7 |
5.8 |
4.0 |
HICP (end of period) |
2.3 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
source: BNB