The US dollar remain stable
The euro advanced versus the US dollar on Friday as the single currency traded in narrow range, close to its record levels. Data released in the US saw February personal spending climb 0.1% while personal income was up 0.5%. Also, February headline personal consumption expenditures rose 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y while core PCE excluding food and energy were also up 0.1% and were up 2.0% y/y. These data are closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and policymakers will note that the core year-on-year rate was less-than-expected and right around the upper limit of their perceived comfort zone for inflation. Other data released in the US saw the final March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fall to 69.5 from 70.8 a month earlier.
The yen depreciated against the US dollar as data released in Japan saw that the February core consumer price index rose 1.0% y/y, the largest increase in nearly a decade. Meanwhile, the February unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8% in January, above forecasts. In same time February retail sales were up 3.1% y/y.
The British pound depreciated sharply against the US dollar as data released in the UK saw Nationwide March UK house prices fall for the fifth consecutive month, off 0.6% m/m with annualized growth lower at 1.1%. Also, GDP expanded at its weakest annual rate in nearly two years in Q4 2007, up 0.6% q/q and an annualized 2.8%.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
EUR/USD
The euro is in consolidation just near the all time record highs. Before a test of the maximum at 1.5904 a break of the resistance around 1.5860 is needed. On the downside support is seen at 1.5710, followed by 1.5610 and 1.5555, which is 23.6%, retracement of the 1.4439-1.5904 rise.
EUR/USD (chart)
| Support | 1,571 | 1,561 | 1,5555 |
| Resistance | 1,586 | 1,59 | 1,595 |
USD/JPY
The pair consolidates in narrow range as its saw strong support around 98.90 levels from downside and was limited around 100.20 from upside. If one of these levels is broken next targets are the resistances at 100.80 and 101.15 from upside and supports at 98.50 and 97.60 from downside.
USD/JPY (chart)
| Support | 98.90 | 98,5 | 97,6 |
| Resistance | 100.20 | 100,8 | 101,15 |
GBP/USD
The pair broke down into the key resistance level at 2.0040, which is 38.2% retracement of the 2.1159-1.9353 drop. Next supports are seen at 1.9940, followed by 1.9810 and 1.9750. On the upside resistance is seen at 2.0040, followed by 2.0190 and 2.0250.
GBP/USD (chart)
| Support | 1,994 | 1,981 | 1,9750 |
| Resistance | 2.0040 | 2,019 | 2,025 |
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FX daily review 31.03.2008.pdf, 187 Kb
