By Kiril Kirilov
SKOPJE (Macedonia), May 30 (SeeNews) - On Sunday 1,740,000 Macedonian voters will take part in the first snap general election in the former Yugoslav republic but most analysts do not expect major changes of the existing status quo.
The two main players will be the conservative VMRO-DPMNE - the party that ruled the country for a year and a half - and their leftist opponents - Social-Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM).
The two rivals have formed coalitions. VMRO-DPMNE led a coalition of 20 small parties headed by the current Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski. SDSM formed a coalition with seven small leftist parties, most of them successors of the ex-communist party.
GRUEVSKI TO STAY IN POWER
According to the latest poll, conducted by the local agency Institute for Democracy, VMRO-DPMNE will get 31.3% of the votes, followed by SDSM with 11.2%. Two major ethnic Albanian parties in the country - Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) and Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) – will get 9.1% and 5.6%, respectively. Thus, the configuration in the next parliament will remain almost the same.
In the 2006 elections VMRO-DPMNE won 33 % of the vote and 45 seats in parliament. SDSM won 22% and 32 seats, DUI had 12% and 17 seats. DPA won seven percent and 11 seats, New Social-Democratic Party (NSDP) had six percent and seven seats, VMRO-Narodna won six percent and six seats.
The only question that still remains unanswered is which party Gruevski will choose to form a coalition that will have a majority in the parliament. The problem is that 41.3% of the electors will not vote at all or still consider which party to elect.
Most experts do not believe that there will be a major change in the political and economic course of the country and only few analysts think that Gruevski might not remain a Prime Minister. This means that Macedonia will follow its pro-European course but will continue to face political and economic problems.
Last month NATO delayed its invitation to Macedonia to join because of Greek objections over the country's name. Greece says that the name Republic of Macedonia implies a territorial claim to its northernmost province of the same name. After NATO delayed its invitation, Macedonia called snap elections for June 1, aiming to break the deadlock in talks with Greece over its name.
NO CHANCE FOR COMPROMISE WITH GREECE
A poll conducted by SeeNews in May showed that almost one third of the respondents do not expect major crisis in the region but there are signs that the critical state of the Greek – Macedonian relations will not be changed soon. On May 26 Gruevski again raised the question about the Macedonian minority in Greece, which is a clear signal that on a political level the two countries hardly will reach compromise.
In the SeeNews poll 29.58% of respondents believe that NATO will push Greece to reach compromise with Skopje. However, following the latest statements of Gruevski, Athens gave a clear sight that it would not change its position towards Macedonia unless Skopje decides to smooth out its relations with the neighbouring countries. According to analysts, Athens sent a signal that it will block all Macedonian efforts to join NATO and EU.
ECONOMY TO SUFFER
A probable unstable political situation in Macedonia and continuous poor relations with its neighbours will lead to serious economic problems. Foreign investors are very sensitive about investing in countries where early elections are held.
Analysts said that Macedonia’s perspective to join European Union is also threatened due to the insecurity for the elections turnout and this is another major factor that makes investors cautious.
Exception were two Bulgarian investors. Alpha Finance Holding bought 98.3% of Macedonian International Private Bank and Bulgarian Central Co-operative Bank acquired local Sileks Bank.
However, these deals are in non-manufacturing sector while Macedonia lacks investments in the production of goods. The real estate sector is developing but mainly in areas with ethnic Albanian population and its growth rate is slower compared to the region of southeast Europe. Moreover, owners and landlords withdrew their properties from the market expecting that after the Bucharest summit Macedonia will be invited to join NATO and the prices will skyrocket. Now the real estate prices are on downturn again. Currently a flat in Macedonia can be rented for 650-850 euro per month - nearly 25% cheaper than in Bulgarian capital Sofia and Serbian capital Belgrade.
Macedonia FACES SELF-ISOLATION RISK
With unemployment rate of 37% last year, the bright future of Macedonia’s economy is uncertain, market analysts commented. Only fresh money could revive the economy and to create new jobs, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has said in a report.
Infrastructure projects could pour money into the economy but one of the major such projects, the railroad connecting Sofia and Skopje, is far from being completed and in practice the works are frozen. Thus Macedonia could suffer voluntary economic isolation at least in the field of the logistics.
Following Macedonia’s separation from ex-Yugoslavia, Greece in practice blocked all transportation corridors to Skopje. At the same time, Serbia was in war, while Albania was also unwilling to support Macedonian imports and exports, and Macedonian trade and commodity deliveries went only through Bulgaria.
With its unwillingness for a compromise over the name, Skopje is risking to face a similar situation bordering Albania, Greece, the newborn independent Kosovo and Bulgaria, security experts warned.
SeeNews’ poll showed that 18.31% of the respondents think Macedonia and Kosovo will become the next crisis locations in the region. On the other hand, almost half of the Albanians in Macedonia are ready to give up the current name of the republic if this is the price to join NATO and EU.
Analysts are divided about what to expect from the new government, which most probably will be headed by the current Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski. But high-ranked EU and NATO officials hinted that a stable and willing to make compromises government is essential for the future accession of Macedonia in the European and Atlantic structures. This is also essential for the economy to speed up its growth and to attract foreign investment.
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