CURRENT MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
1. Current macroeconomic developments
In the first ten months of 2009 real sector recorded decline, as well as a widening decline of foreign trade relative to the respective period in 2008. The current account deficit, consumer prices index and real growth of wages decreased in October 2009.
1.1. Economic activity and privatization
Industrial output. In the period January-October 2009 physical volume of industrial output remained below the last year level and declined further by 14% relative to the same period of 2008. The sharpest decline was posted by the processing industry, whose output fell down by 18.1%. In mining and quarrying section the output decreased by 5.5% and the electric power, gas and water supply sections increased by 0.7% compared with the same period 2008.
Drop of industrial production in this period relative to the same period 2008 was mostly attributable to a decline in production of base metals, chemicals and related products, food, furniture and production of rubber and plastic products.
World economic crises and reduction of aggregate demand, mostly influenced production of capital and intermediate goods, which are in the period January- October reduced by 23% and 26.2%, respectively. In the same period production of durable consumer goods recorded significant drop by 28%, due to decline of world and domestic demand.
In October the output downward trend deepened further relative to the same month of 2008 and was lower by 5.8%, which was mainly due to the 7.6% output decline in the processing sector. In mining and quarrying section the outputs decreased by 6.1% while the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water increased by 1.9%.
The output in October 2009 was lower compared with the same month of 2008 in majority of areas. A drop in industrial output was registered in 21 areas that account for 68% of total industrial production. A growth in industrial production was registered in 8 areas that in the structure of industrial output participate with 32%. The highest influence on the fall in industrial output in October 2009 compared with the same month of 2008 came from production of food products, production of furniture, production of machines and instruments, except electric, production of chemicals and related products and production of metal products (except machines).
Seasonally adjusted rates also indicate production decrease. Overall production and processing industry declined in October by 9.5% and 13%, respectively, relative to average production in 2008. Industrial output and processing industry was decreased by 0.8% and 1%, respectively, compared to the previous month.
Seasonally adjusted indices of industrial output (chart)
Finished goods inventory in industry decreased (- 3.3%) in October relative to average inventory in 2008 and by 2.7% relative to the same month of previous year. Sharpest decline of inventories was recorded in capital goods (-16.8%), while on the other hand inventories of energy increased by 23.7%, relative to the same month of the previous year.
Agriculture. According to previous data on realized yields of late crops, plums and grapes, in 2009 compared to 2008 is expected bigger production of maize, sugar beet, potatoes, plums and grapes. Harvest of maize is estimated on 6.4 million tones, which is in comparison to 2008 growth by 3.9%.
Production of sugar beet among industrial crops is expected to be 2.8 million tones, which is compared to 2008 growth by 20.4%. Production of sunflower of 374 thousand tones and 339 thousand tones of soya are lower from last year production by 17.6% and 3.3%, respectively.
Estimated production of potato (883 thousand tones) is greater from last year production by 4.7%. It is expected that the production of plums would be 661 thousand tones and production of grapes would be 431 thousand tones, which is by 8.9% and 15.7% higher compared to last year production.
Retail trade turnover. In October the retail trade turnover increased by 4.1% in real terms relative to the previous month. In comparison to the same month of 2008 real retail trade turnover decreased by 15.3%.
In period January-October 2009, retail trade turnover decreased by 10.7% in real terms relative to the same period of 2008.
Tourism. In period January-October 2009, the overall tourism turnover measured by a number of visits and overnight stays declined relative to the same period of 2008. The number of tourist visits fell by 9% while the number of their overnight stays decreased by 5%, as a result of decline of domestic touristic turnover. In the same period, foreign tourist turnover registered positive trends: number of tourist visits increased by 2% and the number of overnight stays increased by 8%. Foreign exchange revenue from tourism in the first ten months amounted to EUR517.4 million and decreased by EUR23.4 million compared with the same period of 2008. Foreign exchange expenditures from tourism amounted to EUR597.7 million and decreased by EUR150.1 million compared with the same period of 2008.
There were 209.9 thousand tourist visits and 565.8 thousand tourist overnight stays registered in October 2009. The number of tourist visits declined by 11%, and the number of their overnight stays by 13% compared with the same month of the previous year. Especially, domestic tourist turnover dropped sharply. The number of domestic tourist visits declined by 15% and the number of their overnight stays declined by 19%. Foreign tourist visits stay at the same level as of the same month of 2008 and the number of overnight stays increased by 11%.
privatization of enterprises. A total of 89 sociallyowned enterprises were privatized in the period January-October of 2009. Seven companies were sold via tenders, 61 at auctions and 21 on the capital market. These sales generated revenue of EUR79.6 million, while agreed investments amounted to EUR42.6 million.
Two socially-owned companies were privatized in October 2009 at auctions. The receipts from the sales totaled EUR190 thousand, while agreed investments amounted to EUR20 thousand.
CONTENTS
CURRENT MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL TRENDS
I. Macroeconomic trends
II. Fiscal trends
- Republic of Serbia Budget
- Vojvodina Budget
- Budgets of Municipalities and Cities
- Financial Plans of SSO
III. Public Debt
IV. Economic, Fiscal and Statiscs of Public Debt
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