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After three days the positive trade, the market recorded a negative correction
Good morning! You've probably read the reports from the stock market, but we will touch on it again briefly. After three consecutive positive days of trade, yesterday we witnessed a mood swing in investors, and consequently and correction of equity markets. Crobex saw a decline in value of 0.61%, as well as "blue chip" index Crobex10 which also made a negative adjustment of 0.58%. Although we have seen the market decline, we must be encouraged by the fact that yesterday’s traffic on the exchange amounted to 25 million HRK. It is worth mentioning that HT was a heavy player with most shares traded (almost 10 million Euros). Today we will have a look at Ericsson Nikola Tesla. Yesterday the company announced a contract with Montenegrin Telekom for a period of four years. T-mobile Montenegro will have the latest Ericsson solutions available as well as services and support for T-mobile Montenegro and T-Com Montenegro. The total amount of signed contracts is worth over 21 million Euros per year, or almost 85 million Euros in the next 4 years. This is the second agreement, within less than two weeks, because recall that the Ericsson Nikola Tesla signed a contract with the Belarus operator of fixed telephony Beltelecom in the amount of 65 million Euros. Considering the fact that Ericsson Nikola Tesla has not been so successful lately in BiH, Montenegro and Kosovo (36,5% decrease from 2009 to 2008) this is another step in the recovery of these markets where the company has achieved modest performance last year. Today we tried to find similar companies and compare them with domestic Ericsson. Thus, the current multiple selected Ericsson Nikola Tesla traded (P / E x 15.47, P / B 1.66 x, P / S x 1.42), while the selected peer group traded the following multiple: Comarch from Poland (P / E 23.9 x, P / B 1.5x, P / S 1.1 x), and Spirent Communications, the UK (P / E 13.2 x, P / B 3.6x, P / S 2.8 x) and Scanfil from Finland (P / E 12x, P / B 1.2 x, P / S 0.9 x).
From the rest of the events from the corporate market we bring you the announcement of Business results HUP-Zagreb. Our hotelier in 2009 hit 239 million Euros in sales revenues, a relative decline of almost 16%. Furthermore the total revenues have fallen 14,6% in 2009 compared to 2008, while the total expenditures of the period fell 9.8%. In the end, the CEA in 2009 realized net income of 25 million Euros, down compared to 37% in 2008. Today, still expect the prevalence of corrective pressure to slightly lower volumes of Business ... Have a nice day!
CROATIAN EQUITY market; HIGHLIGHTS
| DOWN | 52 |
| NO CHANGE | 6 |
| UP | 20 |
| TOTAL TRADES | 78 |
exchange RATES (table)
TOP PERFORMERS (table)
CROBEX/ General info/ Change (%)/ Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) (table)
CRO -- Croatia Zagreb CROBEX (charts)
- QUOTE OF THE DAY:
„A mother is not a person to lean on but a person to make leaning unnecessary.“
Dorothy C. Fisher
Thoughts on the state of the "dry bulk" market
Encouraged by the growth of last week's BDI index and the growth of share prices of domestic shipping companies, today we decided to review the status of "dry bulk" market. Last week the BDI index took off a whopping 18,4% as a consequence of the completion of Chinese New Year celebrations. Apart from these facts that influenced the growth of freight, it is necessary to mention the negotiations with China's leading suppliers of iron ore and port congestion as an important factor that influenced the price of freight. Negotiations on the price of iron ore could cause the same increase anywhere from 30% to 100%. In the event that there is too much growth in iron ore prices caution should be exercised because it could lead to the substitution of Chinese ore imports considering local conditions and pressures on freight in the opposite direction (down).
Let us redirect the focus to the local market and how domestic shipping companies have reacted to these positive developments with foreign markets. Here we draw attention to the fact that domestic companies have been target of some speculative capital, which was moved from after the fall of engineers work in Montenegro and that it was partly influenced by the performance thereof. Last week the local shippers felt the results, and an increase in their share value. Atlantska Plovidba company increased 3.16%, then Jadroplov 8.43% and Uljanik Plovidba 5,03%. This week did not start on the same note that it finished last week, but regardless, domestic shipping companies have made a nice stash since the beginning of the year.
For the end we will once again look at the perspective of "dry bulk" market this year, which is rather positive. It is expected that the market will definitely make its way out of the crisis in the world economy. In this setting because of its nature the BDI index should grow, but in such a climate, one should bear in mind that along with that comes an increase in world fleet, which will put pressure on freight. In the period since 1980 until 2008 the average is supplied by one capesize ship every two to three weeks, while last year the number of vessels delivered was 112, almost one in three days, until this year plans to deliver even 335 capesize ships (of course here should include the possibility of giving up, but despite this is quite a number of new vessels). For this reason we invite you to keep a close eye on the movement of the above indicators, because there is a real danger of the real situation on the market being hidden by some fog
Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance (chart)
Movements of BDI index (chart)
CROATIAN EQUITY market; FUNDAMENTALS OF SELECTED COMPANIES
Selected Croatian Equity Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) & Performance (table)
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK; CROATIAN EQUITY market - ATGR-R-A; weekly graphs
ATGRRA CZ: Atlantic Grupa (charts)
Down channel
- Today we are looking at weekly ATGR graph from 2 perspectives. First one shows entire trading since ipo, and second shows down channel in which index is moving since it found resistance around 745. We see very solid resistance in area around 750. 700 is very interesting level…. psychological support + short term 38,2%. Middle of the channel is also around 700. Support could be found on lower brink of the channel (we also see 61,8% fibo on this level). ADX confirms weak down trend.
Trading suggestion:
- ATGR on current levels (around 670) does not seem too interesting from TA point of view. You might want to try long around 670 with T/P on upper brink of the channel (around 715). S/L can be around 640.
| Technical targets: | |
| 750,00 | low on 8/2/08 |
| 743,00 | high on 5/2/10 |
| 718,00 | upper brink of the channel |
| 701,00 | close |
| 700,00 | psychological support |
| 684,00 | 50% fibo |
| 669,00 | 61,8% fibo, lower brink of the channel |
| 624,00 | low on 18/12/09 |
WORLD EQUITY indices - FLASH DATA
General Information/ Index/ Country/ Change (%)/ Fundamentals (table)
Citi Group among the biggest winners on the
On the anniversary of the fall of the greatest fall and lowest value, stock index prices slightly increased even in the face of cautious traders because there really wasn’t any encouraging news to encourage investors. We’ll offer some clear statistics to help you understand how the market recovered from March last year. Thus the names of the S & P's highest increase since March last year recorded Genworth Financial (+1830%), Office Depot (+1030%), Fifth Third (+875%), Wyndham Worldwide (719%) and Gannett (+634% ). We have to admit that it would be a nice yield had we bought and held on to any one of these stocks. Names on the Dow Jones experienced somewhat more modest growth, but still enviable. Thus, the largest increase noted Bank of America (+346%), American Express (+273%) and JPMorgan (+168%). Citi Group was the focus of yesterdays market whose share price rose 7,3% due to rumors that authorities could ban short sales, trading practices, which leads to large fluctuations pricing, in stock companies in which the State co-owner. The U.S. government has large stakes in Citigroup, American International Group, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
C US: Citigroup Inc (chart)
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK; WORLD EQUITY indices - DJIA; weekly graph
INDU -- DOW JONES INDEUS AVG. (chart)
Simillar pattern
- Today we are looking at weekly DJIA graph. Few days ago we pointed out possible double top on S & P graph and today we can say that we see almost the same graph here. Resistance is around 10.700. If double top forms, target could be around 10.000 points (5 to 7% below current levels). ADX shows that up trend is weak. OBV shows that volume of trading is more or less flat.
Have a successful day.
Trading suggestion:
- Breach of resistance at 3.915 could be a buy signal with T/P around 4.050 and S/L at 3.840.
| Technical targets: | |
| 10.725,00 | high on 24/6/05 |
| 10.564,00 | close |
| 10.350,00 | low on 3/10/08 |
| 10.215,00 | high on 7/11/03 |
| 9.855,00 | high on 17/10/08 |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK; TRACK RECORD (table)
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