SOFIA (Bulgaria), March 4 (SeeNews) – The economic growth of Southeast Europe is expected to quicken to up to 6.0% in 2009 and 2010 after a slight dip in 2008, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) said.
“Remittances and a credit boom will continue to fuel the core growth driver: domestic demand,” WIIW said in a statement posted on its website.
Strong investment growth and incipient re-industrialisation go hand in hand with an increase in employment, while stable competitive performance, except for Serbia and Turkey, will also provide a better environment for stronger export growth. Nevertheless, the net export position is still unfavourable for want of FDI and technology transfer, WIIW said.
WIIW said the slowdown in global growth, the hikes in oil, metal and food prices on world markets, as well as the subprime crisis which hit the U.S. last year are expected to have only a minor impact on the region.
“However, Serbia’s unbalanced growth path in the wake of the Kosovo crisis poses a regional risk,” WIIW said.
The Serbian province, where 90% of the population is ethnic Albanian, declared unilaterally independence from Belgrade on February 17. Serbia, backed by its historical ally Russia, said it would never recognise Kosovo as an independent state. The European Union member states agreed that each state will adopt an individual decision on the issue. Several EU members, including the United Kingdom, France and Germany, recognised Kosovo's independence. The U.S., too, recognised the new state.
The WIIW forecast the following indicators for southeast Europe in its statement:
| GDP | Consumer prices | Current account (%/GDP) | ||||||||||
| '07 | '08 | '09 | '10 | '07 | '08 | '09 | '10 | '07 | '08 | '09 | '10 | |
| Slovenia | 6.0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | -4.8 | -3.9 | -3.1 | -2.6 |
| Bulgaria | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 10 | 6.0 | 5.0 | -21.6 | -18.8 | -17.0 | -15.6 |
| Romania | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | -14.3 | -14.9 | -14.4 | -13.6 |
| Croatia | 6.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | -7.5 | -7.1 | -7.3 | -7.3 |
| Macedonia | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.9 | -1.7 | -2.4 | -2.2 |
| Albania | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | -8.9 | -6.5 | -7.1 | -8.0 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -13.4 | -11.7 | -10.6 | -9.8 |
| Montenegro | 7.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | -40.0 | -30.0 | -25.0 | -25.0 |
| Serbia | 7.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | -15.7 | -13.6 | -12.7 | -12.0 |
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