market wrap-up
Last week recorded positive results, which was a nice change in the background of the recent turmoil and weeks of negative results. SOFIX advanced by 5.6% to 618bps., BG40 jumped to 166.5 bps. (+9.4%), BGTR 30 added 6.2% to 429 bps. while BGREIT was almost flat at 62.60 bps. Part of the explanation for these growths was the severe drop of the overall market the Friday before last (Oct 10th when markets fell by between 7.3% and 8.4% in a single day). This provided opportunities for speculators, and with some positive news about lowering world interest rates, the local market sentiment improved. However, investors remained cautious, ahead of 3Q-2008 results, which are due to start trickling in from next week till the end of November.
news highlights
- Inflation (HCPI)continued to slow down in Sept, easing to 11.4% YoY.
- Bulgaria’s current account deficit forthe Jan-Aug 2008 period widened to €4.8bn, or 14% of expected GDP (vs €3.4bn, or 11.6% of GDP in end-August 2007).
- Foreign direct investment (FDI) during Jan-Aug 2008 fell to €3bn (8.8% of GDPe), from €4.2bn (14.4% of GDP) during the ame period last year.
- The average gross income of Bulgarian households increased to BGN 686 in August 2008 from BGN 597 a year ago.
- The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% in Sept 2008, 0.09% lower than Aug 2008 and 0.98% lower than Sept 2007.
- Over 4.3m foreign tourists visited Bulgaria in Jan-Aug 2008, up by 15% YoY. The foreigners spent over €1.5bn in Bulgaria for the specified period, which is a 12% YoY growth.
- The Austrian company Voestalpine postponed its decision on where to build a €5bn steel plant that it planned to locate in the Black Sea region, a company press service announced.
- Bulgaria may try to thaw its frozen interbank market by guaranteeing all loans interbank lenders give to each other. The guarantee should run for a year after changes to the deposit insurance act, passed at first reading, take effect.
- EuroIns [5IC] plans a BGN 10m capital increase, offering2.5m shares at BGN 4, and bringing the number of shares to 12.5m. The proposal will be voted on 28 Nov. The capital raise should be considered successful if 50% of the new shares are subscribed. Majority owner Euroins Insurance Group said it would sustain its ownership of at least 70% of the company.
- The permit of Monbat [5MB]’s lead recycling plant in Serbia was revoked by the local eco ministry, on “technical and procedural omissions of the authorities”, states Monbat.
- Eurohold Bulgaria [4EH] plans to group its leasing subsidiaries in a subholding registered in the Netherlands.
- Energoremont Holding [6EG] voted on a dividend payout of BGN 0.05 per share, making a payout of c.11%.
- Secondary trade with shares of Railway Infrastructure will start on 28 Nov. The company performed an ipo in June. Investors subscribed 2.5m news shares for BGN 12.6m. ipo proceeds should be used in company investment programme.
SOFIX / BG40 (chart)
BGTR30/ BG REIT (chart)
| Change | SOFIX | BG40 | BGTR30 | BGREIT |
| 1-wk | 5.6% | 9.4% | 6.2% | -0.4% |
| 3-mo | -40.3% | -36.3% | -37.3% | -29.7% |
| YtD | -64.4% | -67.8% | -60.5% | -40.2% |
| 12-mo | -67.4% | -71.4% | -63.4% | -39.2% |
| Kapitan Diado Nikola [3KN] | 5.0% |
| Blagoevgrad BT [55B] | 1.2% |
| Doverie-Obedinen Holding [5DOV] | 0.0% |
Top Losers *
| Agria Group Holding [A72] | -13.5% |
| Sparky Eltos [SPV] | -10.7% |
| Advance Terrafund [6A6] | -7.4% |
* from our list of selected stocks (see last page)
| Turnover statistics | Week 42 |
| Weekly volume (shares) | 10 023 081 |
| Avg. weekly volume YtD | 12 207 236 |
| Weekly turnover (BGN) | 31 712 570 |
| Avg. weekly turnover YtD | 51 939 079 |
Most recent macro data
| BGN/EUR exchange rate | 1.95583 |
| Inflation (HICP, YoY Sept) | 11.4% |
| Inflation (HICP, cumulative 2008) | 8.0% |
| GDP Growth (YoY H1 2008) | 7.1% |
| Unemployment (Sept 2008) | 5.8% |
| Public External Debt/GDP (Aug '08) | 10.2% |
| FDI Jan-Aug '08 (EUR) | 3.0bn |
| C/A Deficit/GDP (Jan-Aug '08) | -14.4% |
Source: BNB; NSI; National Employment Agency
| Type | Coupon | Maturity | Currency | Yield (%) |
| Treasuries | 3.75% | 16-Feb-10 | BGN | 6.06 |
| Treasuries | 4.75% | 11-Feb-11 | BGN | 6.01 |
| Treasuries | 5.20% | 04-Feb-14 | BGN | 6.12 |
| Eurobonds | 8.25% | 15-Jan-15 | USD | 7.26 |
| Sofibor | Overnight (ON) | BGN | 6.39 | |
| Sofibor | 3-month | BGN | 7.83 | |
| Sofibor | 12-month | BGN | 9.06 | |
| Base Interest Rate | BGN | 4.96 |
Source: BNB; UBB
news in the spotlight
Energy Sector
Bulgarian-Portuguese JV plans to build six biomass plants
Bulgarian-Portuguese joint venture Mape Development plans to invest €150m into the construction of 6 biomass-fuelled power plants with a combined installed capacity of 30 MW in Bulgaria over the next 4 years, the firm said. The first facility should be built in Panagyurishte, central Bulgaria, and will have a capacity of 5 to 10 MW. Mape Development is part of Portuguese consortium MAPA SGPS Group.
Separately, the Association of Bio Fuel Producers criticized the Ministry of Finance for a delay in requesting the approval for zero excise tax on bio fuels, which might be expected no sooner than in 18 months. The distributors now have no economic motivation to offer bio mixtures and the result will be the ruin of this branch of the industry, they claim. Source: Dnevnik
Financial Sector
Bulgarian Development Bank expected to start in mid-2009
Bulgarian Development Bank, which should guarantee loans to SMEs and provide risk financing, is expected to start operations in mid-2009, economy and energy minister Petar Dimitrov said. The operations of Bulgarian Development Bank should be financed by the EU’s Competitiveness Operational Programme and the European Investment Fund. The negotiations with EIF were at a later stage and Bulgaria has asked to receive the whole €200m in the competitiveness programme at a time, the minister said. Source: Dnevnik
Financial sector
EIBank: banks’ lending policy to get more prudent
Bulgarian banks will be more conservative about their lending policy, especially in terms of collateral, EIBank commercial representative Hristina Filipova told at a seminar organized by the bank. The cost of funding will continue to grow raising further the interest rates on retail loans, said EIBank retail banking head Teodor Mladenov. EIBank will continue to give 80% of the cost of mortgage properties and will not cut down on lending in response to the crisis. Deposit rates will also keep the uptrend. The bank rolled out a new six-month deposit with promotional annual rates of 8.2% for BGN and 6.2% for EUR. Source: Dnevnik
Orgachim [5ORG]
Orgachim appoints new CEO
The Supervisory Board of Orgachim announced the appointment of Achille Angelo Bardelli as company’s CEO and member of the management Board. Mr Bardelli previously worked for Max Mayer, Glidden-Salchi, BASF, Degussa-Inxel, DuPont Powder Coatings and Akzo Nobel. Mr Bardelli replaced Boyko Shoylekov, who acted as temporary CEO. Mr Shoylekov was appointed as deputy CEO, responsible for the financial management of Orgachim. Source: Orgachim
Stara Planina Hold [5SR]
Stara Planina Hold to repurchase 105k shares, 0.5% of its capital
Stara Planina Hold will buy back 105k shares making 0.5% of its current capital. The share price will be in the range BGN 2.15 – 2.80. The buyback period will be until Dec 14 but may be extended until the share target is hit. Source: Dnevnik
SELECTED STOCKS INDICATORS (table)
*****
To view the original document, please click on the link below:
http://reports.aiidatapro.com/BBB/FFBH/BWU_Weekly_13-17.10.2008.pdf
*****
Copyright: 2006 First Financial Brokerage House. All rights reserved.For further Information please contact FFBH, 2 Enos Str., 1408 Sofia, BulgariaPhone: +359 2 810 64 21, fax: +359 2 810 64 01, e-mail: ffbh@ffbh.bg, web site: http://www.ffbh.bg
*****
AII Data Processing does not endorse in any way, the views, opinions or recommendations expressed above. The use of the Information is subject to the terms and conditions as published by the original source, which you have to read and accept in full prior to the execution of any actions taken in reliance on Information contained herein.
 | SeeNews SeeNews is a business and financial news and information provider which brings its visitors and customers access to detailed coverage on the fast-growing companies, economies and markets of ten Southeast European nations. |
Search for: see |
Search for: news |
Search for: market |
Search for: ipo |
Search for: management |
Search for: share |
Search for: buyback |
Search for: industry |
Search for: exchange |
Search for: seminar |
Search for: chart |
Search for: Bulgaria |
Search for: Serbia |
 | Research & Profiles SeeNews – Research & Profiles enables an access to over 4,000 comprehensive company and industry profiles and researches from 10 Southeast European countries. |
Terms & ConditionsPrivacyCopyrightPublished by All Data Processing. All rights reserved. Created by Ladger.
BWU Weekly 13-17.10.2008.pdf, 56 Kb
