market WRAP-UP
The indices registered their largest gains since the beginning of the year on Friday. Still, the huge gains came with only small volumes, and eventually the prices calmed down. At the end SOFIX closed at 276.87 (+3.75%) partially offsetting the loss from the beginning of the month. The major moves came from Holding Roads (6H2, BGN 2.062, +12.86%), Chimimport (6C4, BGN 1.29, +6.35%) and Bulgarian American credit Bank (5BN, BGN 8.70, +9.99%). The negative moves within the index were headed by Albena (6AB, BGN 16.02, -5.76%), followed by Euroins Insurance (5IC, BGN 1.69, -3.87%) and Monbat (5MB, BGN 3.925, -2.61%). The REIT companies accounted for 35% of the total turnover, mainly due to several trades with deep discounts in Benchmark Real Estate (6BMA) and Mel Invest Agricultural Land Opportunity REIT (6A7).
| Sofix | BG 40 | BGREIT | BGTR30 | |
| Value | 276.87 | 90.10 | 41.11 | 198.48 |
| 1-day change (%) | 3.75 | 1.99 | 2.16 | 3.91 |
| 7-day change (%) | 1.60 | 0.56 | -0.80 | 1.18 |
| 90-day change (%) | -29.27 | -23.26 | -21.62 | -34.23 |
| 365-day change (%) | -80.57 | -77.86 | -59.80 | -78.58 |
| BSE Daily Volume (shares) | 978 477 |
| BSE Daily Volume (BGN) | 837 729 |
| Avg Daily Turnover YTD (BGN) | 2 953 133 |
| Avg Daily Turnover 12 mo. (BGN) | 8 776 380 |
Most recent macro data
| Inflation (HICP, M/M Jan) | 0.5% |
| Inflation (HICP, cum. 2009) | 0.5% |
| LEONIA Reference Rate | 3.46% |
| SOFIBOR /3 months/ | 6.615% |
| GDP Growth (Y/Y 2008 prelim) | 6.0% |
| Unemployment (Dec 2008) | 6.27% |
exchange rates
| Current | Change | |
| BGN/USD | 1.52525 | 0.00119 |
| BGN/EUR | 1.95583 | Fixed |
| EUR/USD | 1.2823 | -0.001 |
Sofix/ BG 40 / BGREIT / BGTR30 (charts)
DAILY TRADING (selected stocks) (table)
All figures in BGN (BGN/EUR rate fixed at 1.95583)
Compensatory Instruments (table)
ECONOMY AND POLITICS
Macroeconomic news and statistics
Preliminary 2008 GDP of BGN 66.1bn, 6% real GDP growth
According to preliminary data, 2008 GDP amounted to BGN 66.1m. The real GDP growth for the year was 6%, with a growth of 3.6% registered in the last quarter alone.
Source: NSI: FFBH
Macroeconomic news and statistics
Current account gap widens to 24% of GDP, FDI down by EUR 1bn YoY
The current account deficit (CAD) widened to EUR 8.3bn in 2008, 24% of GDPe (vs. 22% of GDP in 2007). Preliminary 2008 FDI declined to EUR 5.4bn, down by more than EUR 1bn from 2007 revised value. FDI covered 66% of CAD, compared to 103% for 2007 and 70% for 11mo2008.
The payment balance was positive for 2008 at EUR 0.7bn, compared to positive EUR 3.2bn for 2007. For December 2008 there was a record payment balance deficit of EUR 1.6bn.
Source: BNB; FFBH
Macroeconomic news and statistics
Inflation of 0.5% MoM for January
Based on the Harmonized index of Consumer Prices, there was an inflation of 0.5% MoM and 6% YoY in January 2009. Compared with December 2008, price increases were registered for foods and soft drinks (1.9%), as well as for water, electricity, gas and other fuels, rents and home maintenance (1.8%). Price drops were registered for transport services (2.2%) and for clothes and footwear (1.3%).
Source: NSI; FFBH
Macroeconomic news and statistics
Central Bank downbeat about the economy H1 2009
Bulgaria will see a sharp slowdown in real GDP growth coupled with a moderate deceleration of FDI in H1 2009, the central bank forecast in its latest Economic Review bulletin. Moreover, domestic demand and economic activity will slow amid a falling inflation rate and a shrinking current account gap as percentage of the gross domestic product, according to the report.
Annual credit growth will continue to lose speed, reaching around 15% by the middle of 2009, the Bulgarian National Bank estimated. Deposit interest rates are expected to drop in the forthcoming months.
The global economic downturn is likely to dampen foreign demand for Bulgarian products and foil investment plans of Bulgarian companies. The slower rise in income will constrain consumer spending.
Inflation will continue to decelerate driven by lower fuel and raw material prices on the international markets. The budget surplus is seen exceeding 5% of GDP in the first two quarters of the year. The current account gap will start to narrow and drop below 20% of GDP towards the middle of the year.
Source: Dnevnik
Tourism
Tourism agency: zero growth upbeat scenario
Bulgaria’s tourism sector will remain at its current level in the optimistic scenario, tourism agency chairwoman Anelia Kruskova said, confirming forecasts the market is in for its worst season in years. The key seaside resorts reported early bookings have halved from last year. Based on the early bookings, foreign tourists are expected to be down about 20% YoY in 2009.
C. 30% drop in the number of tourists has been registered for the winter.
Source: Dnevnik; Investor.bg; FFBH
Energy sector
Gaz de France eyes Balkan market
French energy company Gaz de France Suez (GDF) is eager to take active part in the development of the Balkan market, said the press office of the Bulgarian government. Last week Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev met with the firm’s executive committee member Pierre Clavel and Bulgarian Energy Holding (BEH) executive director Galina Tosheva. During the recent gas crisis GDF said it wanted to supply from the LNG terminal in northern Greece and to build a gas pipeline linking Bulgaria and Greece. The firm is interested in investments in the gas transmission and distribution grids of Romania, Bulgaria and Greece, in gas deposits and in the privatisation of the Sofia heating utility.
Source: Dnevnik
Macroeconomic news and statistics
Wood processors hurt by the crisis
Bulgaria’s wood processing and furniture companies are reporting hefty declines due to the ongoing economic slump, Kalin Simeonov, chair of the wood processing chamber, told Focus news agency. Primary wood processing companies are under most serious pain, followed by furniture makers. The industry ships around a quarter of its output to foreign markets. Many of the workers in the sector are being sent on a week of unpaid leave every month to save their jobs.
Source: Dnevnik
CORPORATE news
Bulgarian River Shipping AD [5BR]
Bulgarian River Shipping stocks to be excluded from two Dow Jones indexes
Starting from February 18, 2009, the stocks of Bulgarian River Shipping will be excluded from the basis for calculation of the indexes DJ STOXX Eastern Europe TMI Small and DJ STOXX EU Enlarged TMI.
Source: Investor.bg; FFBH
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