market Trend
We can easily name the last week “the black week” in the recent Bulgarian market’s history. Driven by the international weakness the main indices lost around 20%. On Thursday BSE opened firmly on the upside, following the green wave in Europe but on Friday Bulgarian stocks turned sharply power at the open on Friday and main indices fell 7%. Liquid shares underperformed the broad market. The panic obsessed the market and along with the close of REPO deals strengthened the pressure over the positions.
The correlation with developed markets will remain the primary driver for BSE. Eventhe forthcoming quarterly reports probably will not influence the investors’ decisions.
BG40 (LS)/ SOFIX (RS) (chart)
Trading Activity
The banks were the most traded positions by turnover. First Investment Bank (5F4) was subject of improved investors’ interest and set up large part of the overall turnover during the week. The bank lost 25% on weekly basis but found support at BGN 3.10 and limited the free fall. Several large package transactions with Corporate Commercial Bank (6C9) boosted the total turnover on Wednesday. Industrials and diversified holdings were also actively traded but not to extreme levels.
Traded Volumes in BGN (chart)
SOFIX
| Stock | Last Price | Weekly Change | Bid | Ask |
| Albena | 37.718 | -23.14% | 39.00 | 39.90 |
| Bulgarian-American credit Bank | 20.501 | -44.96% | 22.00 | 0.00 |
| Central Cooperative Bank | 2.225 | -19.59% | 2.12 | 2.25 |
| Chimimport | 3.826 | -26.20% | 3.77 | 3.85 |
| Corporate Commercial Bank | 70.01 | -13.67% | 70.00 | 71.00 |
| Elana Opportunity Land Fund | 1.106 | -26.95% | 1.05 | 1.11 |
| Enemona | 8.389 | -37.73% | 8.69 | 8.70 |
| Euro Ins | 3.705 | -14.18% | 3.62 | 3.90 |
| First Investment Bank | 3.107 | -25.08% | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Holding Roads | 12.274 | -12.15% | 10.30 | 12.00 |
| Industrial Holding Bulgaria | 4.448 | -8.68% | 4.37 | 4.40 |
| Kaolin | 4.383 | -11.95% | 4.27 | 4.30 |
| Lead and Zink Complex | 18.893 | -7.53% | 17.70 | 18.77 |
| M+S Hydraulic | 6.387 | -15.43% | 6.26 | 6.30 |
| Monbat | 6.01 | -27.59% | 5.85 | 6.03 |
| Neochim | 66.06 | -10.27% | 66.47 | 66.50 |
| Orgachim | 98.486 | -20.28% | 97.51 | 101.90 |
| Sopharma | 2.126 | -16.37% | 2.12 | 2.00 |
| Sparky Eltos | 4.147 | -24.75% | 5.00 | 4.79 |
| Toplivo | 9.892 | -20.48% | 10.00 | 10.10 |
Another “red” week for SOFIX’s components. Bulgarian American credit Bank (5BN) weighted on the main index as the bank lost 45% on weekly basis. 1.33% of bank’s capital changed hands on Wednesday at average price of BGN 22.93. On Friday 5BN announced consolidated net profit of BGN 43.92 m as of September 30, which is 14.6% up y-o-y.
The SOFIX average price to earning ratio improved to 7.40.
- 06 October 2008: Sopharma (3JR)announced sales growth of 46% for September as compared to the same month last year. The export increase by 105%, whereas the domestic sales declined by 31%. For the first nine months of the year the pharmaceutical company posted 10% sales growth y-o-y. The continuous reconstruction of the ampoule plant and the specialties of the Bulgarian pharmaceutical market pressured the domestic revenues.
- 09 October 2008: Doverie United Holding (5DOV) submitted its interim report as at September 30, 2008 about fulfilment of the obligations related to its bond issue, ISIN - BG2100028054.
- 09 October 2008: The Board of Directors of Lomsko Pivo (6L1) approved the procedure for distribution of the 2007 dividend according to a GMS decision of the company dated July 31, 2008. The gross dividend is BGN 0.10 per share. Dividends will be paid out through the system of the Central Depository and through CB Eurobank EFG Bulgaria. The starting date for the dividend payment is October 15, 2008 and the final date will be February 15, 2009.
- 10 October 2008: Bulgarian American credit Bank (5BN) announced its 3Q 2008 financial report. On individual basis as of 30 September 2008 the net profit of the bank is BGN 43.30 m (EUR 22.12 m) or the profit increased of approximately 17.8% as compared to 30 September 2007.
Upcoming Events
- 13 October 2008: The GMS of Energoremont Holding (6EG) will discuss the distribution of 2007 profit. BGN 2.19 m of the profit will be allocated to the Other Reserves, while other BGN 349 000 will be transferred to the General reserves. The shareholders will vote a distribution of BGN 192 000 as dividend, which correspond to BGN 0.05 per share.
- 15 October 2008: Lomsko Pivo (6L1) will start dividend payment. The company will pay BGN 0.10 gross dividend per share. The company also plans to rise its capital by issuing 1.5 m new shares with BGN 2.50 issue value.
- 15 October 2008: Katex (5KTE) will start dividend payment.
Macroeconomy
- The industrial production contracted by 13.1% in August as compared to the previous month. The manufacturing production was the main driver for the decline with 17%. Usually, the seasonal pattern is not so strong and this year it could be reinforced by the falling demand.
Bonds
3M SOFIBOR (chart)
The money market rates increased for consecutive week but their movement was relatively benign as compared to other weeks. Banks are lending to each other and there aren’t reports of liquidity problems but the rising rates are the main proof for diffuculties to obtain funds.
WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS
BULGARIAN AMERICAN credit BANK /5BN/ (chart)
CORPORATE COMMERCIAL BANK /6C9/ (chart)
INDUSTRIAL HOLDING Bulgaria /4ID/ (chart)
LEAD AND ZINC COMPLEX /5OTZ/ (chart)
ORGACHIM /5ORG/ (chart)
FINANCIAL SECTOR (table)
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR (table)
BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR (table)
CYCLICAL CONSUMER SECTOR (table)
ENERGY SECTOR (table)
OTHER (table)
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Weekly BSE 10 10 2008.pdf, 82 Kb
