market Trend
BSE made a strong reverse on Monday and continued the series of positive sessions during the week. BG40 added 4.61% on weekly basis and SOFIX added 5.19%. Almost 90% of the positions supported the main indexes. Despite the slight selling pressure Eurohold Bulgaria (EUBG) managed to add almost 4%, whereas its subsidiary Euro Ins (EURINS) declined in tight range as BGN 10.00 provided strong resistance.
The negative moods gradually step back and gave place of the positive bias. However, the market is susceptible to quick reverse and sizable losses as the current buy offers remain scarce. The end of the quarter is approaching and we expect some positive performance for several blue chips. It is not unusual to see those positions gaining moderately before a final end-quarter jump. This time could be different due to the rising number of sell orders as speculators are expecting additional gains on Monday and lower prices thereafter.
BG40 (LS)/ SOFIX (RS) (chart)
Trading Activity
The traded volumes slightly decreased as compared to the previous week. Large cross deal with Kauchuk (KAU) shares set up 70% from the Thursday’s turnover. If we exclude the deal total turnover will amount BGN 6 m. Buyers gradually renewed the bid orders but maintained cautious and placed the orders below the current market prices. Liquid positions kept the market’s attention but the low trading volumes are a clear sign that investors are reluctant to buy at the moment.
Traded Volumes in BGN (chart)
SOFIX
Most SOFIX’s components closed on the upside after a positive week. Sparky Eltos (ELTOS) outperformed after series of buying-up. The 4Q net profit of the company strongly improved y-o-y to BGN 9.3 m. sales also increased. The P/E of 24.50 is above the market average, whereas P/B of 2.39 is lower. Neochim (NEOH) announced that the expected revenues for 2008 are almost BGN 268 m. The company expects sales to increase by 40% due to higher production of fertilizers and prices (as a result of the natural gas price hike as of 1 January 2008). NEOH was traded in moderate volumes during the week but managed to add almost 10% on weekly basis and to close Friday’s session at BGN 57.48. Toplivo (TOPL) also announced the estimated financial results. TOPL expects consolidated sales for 2008 to reach BGN 310 m and the net profit to amount BGN 9.45m. Trading with construction materials should continue to support the company’s results.
Banking sector closed in the green, leaded by Central Cooperative Bank (CCB) which was one of the most damaged financials during the recent market weakness.
| Stock | Last Price | Weekly Change | Bid | Ask |
| Albena | 91.5 | 4.73% | 90.00 | 91.50 |
| Bulgarian-American credit Bank | 70.42 | 4.85% | 68.10 | 71.00 |
| Central Cooperative Bank | 5.95 | 9.17% | 5.80 | 6.05 |
| Chimimport | 8.6 | 2.63% | 8.51 | 8.60 |
| Corporate Commercial Bank | 88.04 | 7.47% | 86.50 | 88.00 |
| Elana Opportunity Land Fund | 2.3 | 0.00% | 2.28 | 2.30 |
| Euro Ins | 9.6 | 0.63% | 9.51 | 9.83 |
| First Investment Bank | 8.11 | 7.85% | 7.91 | 8.10 |
| Holding Roads | 1015.68 | -2.67% | 1016.00 | 1019.80 |
| Industrial Holding Bulgaria | 7.76 | 7.48% | 7.82 | 7.83 |
| Kaolin | 13.87 | 8.11% | 13.71 | 13.95 |
| Lead and Zink Complex | 57.48 | -0.17% | 57.90 | 58.00 |
| M+S Hydraulic | 9.63 | 2.45% | 9.68 | 9.96 |
| Monbat | 26.98 | 7.92% | 26.90 | 27.10 |
| Neochim | 55.8 | 9.82% | 53.00 | 57.49 |
| Orgachim | 411.91 | 2.74% | 411.00 | 419.50 |
| Sopharma | 6.12 | 0.33% | 6.05 | 6.15 |
| Sparky Eltos | 13.77 | 21.43% | 13.52 | 13.76 |
| Toplivo | 20.15 | 4.95% | 19.90 | 20.39 |
- 24 March 2008: On March, 24 Doverie United Holding (DOVUHL) acquired 90% from capital of Health Insurance Fund MEDIKO 21 AD.
- 24 March 2008: DOVUHL increase its share in Hydroizomat (HYDRO) to 56.04% - 10.61% direct shareholding and 45.43% via related entities.
- 24 March 2008: Synergon Holding (PETHL) increases itsshare in Petar Karaminchev (PKAR) to 66.23%, all direct shareholding.
- 25 March 2008: Monbat (MONBAT) announced financial results as of February.
- 27 March 2008: Trace Group Hold (TRACE) decided to found new subsidiary - Road Signalisation and Equipment. The capital of the company amounts BGN 5 000, allocated in 50 units of BGN 100 each.
- 28 March 2008: M+S Hydraulic(MCH) has appointed a GMS on May, 16. Voting right will have all shareholders registered with the Central Depository by April, 30 2008.
Upcoming Events
- 31 March 2008:Begin the trading with rights for recent capital increase of Sila Holding (HSI). The capital of the company should be increase to BGN 2.09 m. One right gives opportunity for subscribing 22 new shares with issuing value of BGN 1.00 per share.
- 31 March 2008: First Investment Bank (FIB)will lead a GMS. Shareholders will vote to not distribute the profit as dividends.
- 1 April 2008: Will be leaded an auction for 3.9% from Svetlina (SVESL). The limited price for the entire package is BGN 324 994.80 or BGN 18.825 per share.
- 2 April 2008: The last date for subscribing shares of the recent capital increase of DOVUHL.
- 3 April 2008: Auction for unused rights for the capital increase of Alfa Wood Bulgaria (TICHA). Currently, shares are trading below the subscription price of new shares. Macroeconomy
- The credit rate for February decreased as compared to January. The Business credit’s growth decreased by 5.8 points y-o-y as well as the total amount of credits, which diminished by 2.9 points y-o-y. The newly granted loans amounts BGN 1.1 billion – BGN 574 m Business loans and BGN 510 m household loans.
-Bulgarian Finance ministry repaid EUR 275.1 m (USD 428 m) from the debt to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), 10 years ahead of schedule.
- Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) announced that Bulgaria's gross external debt amounted to EUR 27 billion (83.7% of GDP) as of January 2008,which is 2.5% down (EUR 716.3 m) as compared to the end of 2007 when it stood at EUR 28 billion, or 97.3% of GDP.
Bonds
SOFIBOR posted small increase at the end of the last week and finished at its high. However, short-term interest rates remain at their highest levels and banks are preparing to raise rates on credits.
3M SOFIBOR (chart)
WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS
MOSTSTROY /MOSTS/ (chart)
NEOCHIM /NEOH/ (chart)
ORGACHIM /ORGH/ (chart)
SOPHARMA /SFARM/ (chart)
SPARKY ELTOS /ELTOS/ (chart)
FINANCIAL SECTOR (table)
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR (table)
BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR (table)
CYCLICAL CONSUMER SECTOR (table)
ENERGY SECTOR (table)
OTHER (table)
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Weekly BSE 28 03 2008.pdf, 80 Kb
