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© Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina |
INTRODUCTION
Dear readers and users,
At the mid-point of the current year, we may conclude that the economic activities in the real sector were accelerated and that we can expect further increase of added value relative to 2007. Unlike in 2007, this year the climate factors do not have a negative impact, and therefore electric power generation and agriculture will not be affected. On the fiscal side, the situation is less favorable than previously, due to relaxation of the fiscal discipline and a considerable rise of government consumption in 2008, which causes concern regarding the budget execution until the end of the year.
The statistics of government finances for 2007 was published and this bulletin includes a regular annual analysis of the fiscal trends for last year. In addition, this bulletin provides a more detailed analysis of the 2007 gross domestic product, since the data were published recently. Earlier economic growth estimates were revised upward, since the real GDP growth rate was 6.8 per cent, which puts BiH among the faster-growing European countries.
The more detailed analyses included in this bulletin can be summed up as follows:
- Financial turmoil and extreme energy price increases caused a significant slowing of the growth in developed economies.
- The industrial output has been growing in both entities for the pas six months and it was 5 to 6 per cent higher relative to the preceding year. The growth of output in power generation and mining in RS was particularly remarkable, while in FBiH mining output declined.
- Inflatory pressure was marked and the annual inflation rate continued rising to 9.6 per cent in June, but a certain degree of calming of its monthly growth rates has been observed, which may lead to moderation of inflation in the second half of the year.
- The 16.7 per cent increase of average salaries at BiH level is significantly over theinflation rate, although this growth was uneven across the entities, since the annual increase was 31.5 per cent in RS and 12.8 per cent in FBiH.
- The foreign currency reserves went through a mild negative correction of 1.1 per cent, which lasted since December, when the reserves rose suddenly in anticipation of the introduction of the new level of the required reserves rate.
- The growth of the money supply M2 continued the slowing from previous periods, mainly due to slower increase of money in circulation and demand deposits. At the same time, monetary multiplication accelerated.
- The credit growth trends for households and corporations have diverged considerably. While the rates of growth for households have slowly declined since the start of the year, the levelof loans to corporations is rising fast.
- Total deposits with banks rose by KM 319 million during the quarter, with the government deposits declining by KM 41 million.
- Average (long-term) interest rates for households rose and crossed the 9 per cent level, while for corporations they remained nearly the same relative to the end of the preceding quarter.
- The turnover at the stock exchanges has continued to decline, and the value of the indices at the Banja Luka Stock exchange dropped significantly, while the drop at the Sarajevo Stock exchange is much smaller relative to the preceding quarter.
- The foreign-trade deficit in the second quarter was KM 2.52 billion, with the coverage of imports by exports at 41 per cent. The share of imports from the EU was somewhat lower than normally.
- Owing to the similar foreign-trade imbalance, the current account deficit in the first quarter was KM 947.8 million, which indicates that a significant worsening of the external position of BiH economy will occur 2008.
- The level of the external debt of the government did not change significantly, but the amount of contracted, but unutilized funds increased considerably due to conclusion of new credit agreements.
- A certain level of real appreciation was registered, mainly caused by the nominal appreciation to the currencies of the major trading partners.
Editor-in-Chief
Amir Hadziomeragic, M.A.
CONTENTS
LIST OF GRAPHS
ACRONYMS
INTRODUCTION
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
2. REAL SECTOR
2.1 Gross domestic product in 2007
2.2 Industrial output
2.3 Prices
2.4 Wages and employment
3. FINANCIAL SECTOR
3.1 Foreign currency reserves and monetary base
3.2 Monetary aggregates
3.3 Required reserve
3.4 Activities of commercial banks
3.5 Interest rates
3.6 Stock exchanges
3.7 Payment transactions
4. EXTERNAL SECTOR
4.1 Foreign trade
4.2 Current account
4.3 Capital and financial account
4.4 Foreign direct investments
4.5 External debt
4.6 Nominal and real effective exchange rate of KM
5. GOVERNMENT FINANCES FOR 2007
6. STATISTICAL tables
7. ANNEX
LIST OF GRAPHS
Graphs 01: Interest rates of world’s main central banks
Graphs 02: Oil prices (EUR/barrel)
Graphs 03: Annual inflation rates
Graphs 04: Nominal GDP and growth rates of real GDP
Graphs 05: index of industrial production for FBiH
Graphs 06: index of industrial production for RS
Graphs 07: BH - Consumer Price index - CPI
Graphs 08: Annual inflation rates in June 2008
Graphs 09: Food and beverage annual price rates in June 2008
Graphs 10: Employment structure by activities
Graphs 11: Buying and selling of KM
Graphs 12: CBBH’s foreign reserves
Graphs 13: Monetary base M0
Graphs 14: Monetary aggregates
Graphs 15: Structure of broad money (M2)
Graphs 16: Liquidity of commercial banks by maintenance periods
Graphs 17: Claims on non-government sector by maturuty and annual growth rate
Graphs 18: Annual growth rates of claims on households and private enterpises
Graphs 19: Deposits of non- government sector by maturity
Graphs 20: Foreign assets and foreign liabilities
Graphs 21: Lending interest rate of commercial banks
Graphs 22: Spread between lending and deposit rates
Graphs 23: Stock exchange Indicies
Graphs 24: Turnover on Stock exchanges
Graphs 25: Payment system transactions
Graphs 26: Imports and exports of goods
Graphs 27: Imports (seasonally adjusted)
Graphs 28: Exports (seasonally adjusted)
Graphs 29: Goods participation in imports in the second quarter
Graphs 30: Goods participation in imports in the second quarter
Graphs 31: Balance of payments: current account
Graphs 32: Balance of payments: financial account
Graphs 33: KM nominal exchange rates
Graphs 34: Nominal and Real effective exchange rate
Graphs 35: Consolidated revenues, expenditures and primary surplus
Graphs 36: Revenues and expenditures of FBH government and cantons, and consolidated surplus(+)/deficit(-)
Graphs 37: Revenues and expenditures of RS government and con solidated surplus(+)/deficit(-)
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Quarterly Bulletin 2 Jan June 2008.pdf, 2,018 Kb
