SKOPJE (Macedonia), March 21 (SeeNews) – Macedonia needs to make sure its border with Kosovo will be clearly set and its trade relations with Serbia will not worsen before recognising Kosovo independence, which will happen soon, Macedonian analysts said on Friday.
The southern Serbian province of Kosovo, whose population is 90% ethnic Albanian, declared independence on February 17. So far it has been recognised as an independent state by more than 30 countries, including the United States, Canada, Japan and most of European Union member states. Serbian neighbours Croatia, Hungary and Bulgaria recognised Kosovo earlier this week. Serbia, backed by its ally Russia, has said the declaration of independence is violation of its sovereignty and will never recognise Kosovo.
Macedonia needs to agree the demarcation of its border with Kosovo in the north and make sure its recognition of the breakaway Serbian province will not harm relations with its biggest trade partner Serbia, especially electricity imports from there.
Macedonia, where the population is 25% ethnic Albanian, has not recognised Kosovo yet. It borders Serbia and Kosovo in the south.
“I don’t think Macedonia has a real choice with regard to its future policy towards Kosovo. Because of internal pressure, Macedonia will soon recognise Kosovo,” Nenad Markovic, an analyst with the Skopje-based think tank Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis,” told SeeNews.
He said a recognition of Kosovo will have a positive impact on relations between Macedonians and ethnic Albanians in Macedonia and will help expansion of Macedonian businesses on the Kosovo market.
Macedonia emerged from an armed conflict between its own ethnic Albanian minority and government forces in 2001. The conflict ended with the West-brokered Ohrid agreement and since then Macedonia has given greater powers to its ethnic Albanian minority.
“At the moment, it is known that Macedonia will recognise Kosovo, but when exactly it should do so has to depend on several key and decisive issues which, if not resolved, may have serious political and economic consequences,” the executive director of Macedonian daily Utrinski Vesnik, Erol Rizaov, said in an analysis carried by the newspaper on Friday.
Kosovo leaders should honour the agreement about the mutual recognition of borders, which Macedonia signed with former Yugoslavia, he said. The agreement is deposited at the United Nations. Macedonia and Serbia both were part of the former Yugoslav Federation which Macedonia left in 1991.
“In the first place, good neighbourly relations cannot be built when earlier government documents are not honoured, especially when it comes to recognising a border between two states,” Rizaov said.
He added that Macedonia's future political and trade ties with Serbia also have to be defined before Macedonia recognises Kosovo.
“How Serbia will react is not an issue for analysis in Macedonia yet, let alone for diplomatic moves,” Rizaov said.
Serbia is one of the main suppliers of electricity to Macedonia, which faces difficulties in providing power supplies to its industry. Skopje should work to find an alternative suppier before it recognises Kosovo, he added.
“Also, as it is usual between neighbours, both [Macedonian President Branko] Crvenkovski and [Prime Minister Nikola] Gruevski, before they recognise Kosovo, should go to their neighbour Serbia and explain in detail the motives for the recognition and the danger of destabilising Macedonia,” Rizaov said.
“What currently is the greatest fear is the potential deterioration of Macedonia’s relations with Serbia,” Markovic said.
“As Serbia is Macedonia’s biggest trading partner, and because of the energy connections between the two countries, Macedonians fear possible sanctions by the Serbian political elite,” he said.
Markovic also said some tensions in Macedona could intensify, if Skopje recognises Kosovo independence, for example the latent concern in ethnic Macedonians that appetite for power among ethnic Albanians in Macedonia will increase or that, in the medium and long term, internal security will be impossible to sustain, no matter whether Kosovo is independent or not.
“But, on the other hand, there is the relief among citizens (especially ethnic Macedonians) from the final settlement of tensions in the region which Kosovo independence is supposed to bring about,” Markovic said.
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