SOFIA (Bulgaria), March 21 (SeeNews) - Bulgaria's recognition of Kosovo independence is unlikely to ruin its economic relations with Serbia but risks remain above all for the Bulgarian transport and tourism sectors, analysts and businessmen said on Friday.
Bulgaria's government's recognised Kosovo on Thursday, 32 days after the breakaway Serbian province declared its independence from Belgrade on February 17. Serbia has said it would never recognise Kosovo as an independent state.
OGNYAN MINCHEV, SOFIA-BASED POLITICAL ANALYST:
"There will be no immediate consequences for Bulgaria, we cannot speak automatically of a serious worsening of relations with Serbia even though Serbia has stated that its relations with all the countries [that recognise Kosovo] will deteriorate. Serbia itself is not flourishing in economic, political and international sense to allow itself artificially hostile campaigns. Bilateral relations could cool down but I do not think that there will be serious hostile actions on behalf of the Serbian government and institutions."
"If such actions happen, Bulgaria should react immediately through its representatives in the European Union, it should immediately inform the union about the damages it suffers or would suffer."
"The dynamics of Serbia's relations with neighbouring countries, with the international community will undergo a certain change. What is expected as a reaction to Kosovo is the strengthening of the radical nationalist forces in the Serbian social life, which practically had been part of the regime of [late Yugoslav strongman Slobodan] Milosevic and had brought Serbia to that unenviable state in which it is now. However, they will not be able to offer something significant and from this point of view I personally expect that their strengthening in the context of Kosovo’s independence will be short-lived."
"Subsequently, I hope that the pro-European trends in the development of Serbia will prevail and this means that Bulgaria and the other countries which recognise the independence of Kosovo will not suffer serious changes in their relations with Serbia."
"But not only the relations with Serbia are important when we talk about independent Kosovo. Bulgaria is member of the European Union and as such it owes loyalty to its partners in the EU for the establishment of a common position on Kosovo and the rest of the balkans because if the EU fails in its mission to stabilise and integrate the balkans into its institutions, this failure will be a failure not only in relation to the balkans but in relation to the EU as a whole."
"There cannot be a successful European project while there exists a ghetto in the Western balkans that is staying aside from the EU and is continuing to slide to the bottom."
"Yes, Bulgaria’s decision [to recognise Kosovo] is right. This is not an easy decision because of the simple reason that independent Kosovo creates a series of problems not only for Serbia […] but for the region and other countries. Despite this, the decision is right, there was no alternative."
GEORGI ANGELOV, MACROECONOMIC ANALYST WITH SOFIA-BASED NON-PROFIT OPEN SOCIETY INSTITUTE FOUNDATION:
"I do not expect some big problems in the economic relations [between Bulgaria and Serbia] but we have to have in mind that those relations are currently not very strong. For example, Bulgaria’s trade with Romania, Turkey, Greece is more developed and much bigger than trade with Serbia. On the other hand, we have already lived through such a shock last year because after we joined the EU we had to introduce visas for all neighbouring countries that are not EU members and actually we have had a sharp decrease in the number of Serbian citizens visiting Bulgaria. However, it is supposed that those were mainly shuttle traders who now face more difficulties to enter Bulgaria because of the visas."
"We suffered the big shock in relations with Serbia last year and now the possible consequences because of Kosovo would be maybe less Serbian tourists coming to Bulgaria."
"On the other hand, possible risks would emerge if the Serbian response is too strong and they could be related to the Bulgarian investments in Serbia and the Bulgarian transport traffic which goes through Serbia."
"Of course, if the Bulgarian and other European investments are impeded in Serbia, Serbia itself will be the loser and the country now is trying to do just the opposite. Serbia has a clear policy to attract more foreign investments and this could not happen if they start hampering foreign investors from the countries that have recognised Kosovo, most of them European countries which invest in Serbia."
"I don’t expect a strong reaction, as this will contradict their goal to attract foreign investments. […] If Serbia wants to wreck its economic policy, it can do it. The point is that this could last for a limited period of time; in the longer term the country can not develop if it separates itself from the rest of the world."
ROBERTO MLADENOV, CEO OF BULGARIAN METALS GROUP INTERTRUST INVESTING IN SERBIA:
"We haven't noticed any change in relations so far, neither with the government nor with the people, but the event is too fresh […] We do not have particular expectations in regard to the Business. There is a quite well developed and structured privatisation programme in Serbia and we meet our obligations under it."
"We are now waiting to see what will happen but our long-term expectation is for a positive development, as this is the European path of Serbia, the European path of the balkans, this is our joint European path, so we are optimistic."
PLAMEN TSALKOV, HEAD OF THE ASSOCIATION OF BULGARIAN ENTERPRISES FOR INTERNATIONAL ROAD TRANSPORT AND ROADS, IN AN interview WITH BULGARIAN DAILY TRUD:
"Unfortunately, experience shows that there always have been problems when our neighbours in the west see a certain political decision as unfavourable for them. We have already seen what is happening now – during the times of the embargo [against former Yugoslavia in the 1990s]. We expect very unpleasant situations. We are already receiving signals of attacks on Bulgarian drivers."
"We, as an association, do not have interest the route [through Serbia] to be ignored. From an economic point of view this route is better – firstly, it is faster, and secondly, it is shorter. If we have to cross Romania, the distance is extended by 300-350 kilometres. And the additional cost per kilometre is one euro. This means that every trip to Western Europe will be 300-400 euro ($462.9-$617.2) more expensive. And this sum should be multiplied by 70,000 heavy trucks which annually cross the territory of Serbia. These are at least 21 million euro which will be lost if we have to go round [Serbia]."
GERGANA GRANCHAROVA, Bulgaria'S EUROPEAN INTEGRATION MINISTER IN AN interview WITH BULGARIAN DAILY STANDART:
"We were not hasty. We waited for a month to see how the Kosovo government is reacting in the new situation and I think that they have shown high responsibility. […] With this act, we show that we are committed to security in the region. Closing your eyes to reality and leaving problems unsolved because of uncertainly is not the winning way."
"Every disproportionate act against the Bulgarian government will be considered as disporportionate against the European Union, too. I don’t think we can expect measures different from the measures against the other EU member states."
"Regarding the economic situation – Kosovo exports total 100 million euro and imports are 2.0 billion euro! This is a great niche which we have to take advantage of."
($ = 0.6481 euro)
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